India’s ambitious green hydrogen dream has hit a speed bump, forcing policymakers to recalibrate their timeline for a cleaner energy future. The country initially aimed to produce 5 million metric tonnes of green hydrogen annually by 2030 under its National Green Hydrogen Mission launched in 2023. That target now appears unrealistic, with senior government officials confirming India will likely reach only 3 MMT by 2030, pushing the original goal forward to 2032.
The two-year delay stems primarily from insufficient domestic demand and slower-than-expected development of export markets for this clean fuel. The National Green Hydrogen Mission remains India’s flagship commitment to reducing fossil fuel imports and slashing emissions, with plans to add 125 GW renewable capacity, attract ₹8 lakh crore investments, and create six lakh green jobs. But the gap between aspiration and reality reveals hard truths about technology costs, infrastructure challenges, and market readiness that slow adoption.
Domestic Demand and Export Market Struggles
Limited domestic demand stands as the most significant obstacle blocking India’s green hydrogen roadmap from achieving its original ambitious timeline. Green hydrogen production costs considerably more than traditional fossil-fuel-based grey hydrogen, severely impacting its competitiveness in price-sensitive industrial markets. Key sectors like steel manufacturing, petroleum refining, and fertiliser production are transitioning gradually, but their absorption capacity remains constrained for now. This delay in large-scale uptake by heavy industries fundamentally undermines the business case for massive green hydrogen investments by producers. Export markets that India envisioned for its green hydrogen have failed to mature as hoped, affected by shifting global economics.
Importing countries’ evolving climate policies and their own domestic production plans have reduced potential demand for Indian green hydrogen exports. Infrastructure development necessary for this industry—including dedicated hydrogen transport networks and sophisticated storage solutions—remains in early evolutionary stages. The high capital costs involved in electrolysis technology and establishing reliable supply chains compound these fundamental market challenges substantially. India strives to reduce green hydrogen costs to roughly $1.5 per kilogram by 2030, but current market circumstances make this target extremely difficult to achieve. Policymakers and industry leaders increasingly emphasise the urgent need for demand creation incentives, regulatory clarity, and robust public-private collaboration.
Government Investment and Policy Framework
Despite timeline setbacks, India continues investing heavily in building a comprehensive green hydrogen ecosystem that can eventually achieve global leadership. The government allocated nearly ₹19,744 crore for the National Green Hydrogen Mission, targeting production capacity expansion, research and development, infrastructure enablement, and hydrogen hubs at major ports. Kandla, Paradip, and Tuticorin ports are designated as key hydrogen hubs that will facilitate both domestic distribution and export capabilities. Large enterprises including NTPC, Reliance Industries, and Indian Oil Corporation are actively investing alongside numerous innovative startups, collectively shaping a strong value chain.
The mission’s four foundational pillars—policy framework development, demand creation initiatives, technological innovation, and infrastructure building—remain integral to achieving future growth targets. Public sector support combines with attractive fiscal incentives and streamlined regulatory mechanisms designed to catalyse substantial private sector investment inflows. India also targets 15 GW of electrolyser capacity to scale production and bring costs down through manufacturing economies of scale. This energy transition strategy integrates green hydrogen with India’s broader renewable energy goal of 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030. The policy landscape remains vibrant despite setbacks, demonstrating unwavering government resolve to eventually lead global green hydrogen production and exports.
Strategic Importance and Future Trajectory
Looking forward, India’s green hydrogen industry holds critical importance for achieving climate goals and ensuring long-term energy security independence. Successfully scaling production will potentially reduce carbon emissions by 50 million tonnes annually whilst dramatically lowering costly fossil fuel import dependency. Experts consistently suggest that overcoming cost, demand, and infrastructure challenges requires sustained innovation, strategic international partnerships, and aggressive market diversification efforts. Scaling up electrolyser manufacturing domestically could substantially reduce costs, whilst creating integrated hydrogen valleys will showcase commercial viability to sceptical investors.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has consistently emphasised high ambitions for green hydrogen, urging stakeholders to push technological and industrial limits. The revised production timeline extending to 2032, although representing a delay, does not fundamentally diminish India’s potential to become a global hydrogen hub. The government plans systemic reforms and further substantial investments to accelerate growth significantly post-2030 once foundational infrastructure and markets mature. India’s green hydrogen journey reflects the inherent complexities of major energy transitions but remains absolutely central to achieving climate action commitments.
India’s green hydrogen ambitions face real-world challenges that have pushed the 5 MMT target from 2030 to 2032 due to demand constraints and market dynamics. The National Green Hydrogen Mission continues with strong investment, comprehensive policy backing, and active industry participation across public and private sectors. Addressing cost competitiveness, expanding domestic and international markets, and scaling infrastructure remain essential to ensuring green hydrogen’s transformative role. Despite timeline adjustments, India remains firmly committed to green hydrogen as a low-carbon energy source supporting its 500 GW renewable goal and net-zero pledges by 2070. This evolving journey illustrates the delicate balance between ambitious vision and practical market realities facing emerging clean technologies.