The world’s energy landscape is preparing for a seismic shift eastward. According to the International Energy Agency‘s latest projections, India will emerge as the single largest driver of global energy-demand growth by 2035. This isn’t marginal growth—India‘s total energy consumption will surge by over 15 exajoules, nearly matching the combined increases from China and Southeast Asia together. Behind these staggering numbers lies India‘s relentless economic expansion, averaging 6.1% annually through 2035, whilst lifting per capita income by approximately 75%. The demand surge encompasses everything from oil and coal to natural gas, positioning India as the biggest contributor to incremental oil consumption worldwide. By 2035, India could burn through roughly 8 million barrels of oil daily, up sharply from 5.5 million currently. Vehicle ownership explosion, accelerating industrialisation, and expanding demand for plastics, chemicals, and aviation fuel drive this consumption wave. India is rapidly becoming the epicentre of the planet’s energy appetite.
Fossil Fuel Expansion Powering Economic Ambitions
India‘s energy hunger will manifest dramatically across conventional fuel sources despite global decarbonisation pressures and climate commitments gaining momentum. Oil consumption stands poised to increase substantially, driven by swelling vehicle numbers on Indian roads and expanding industrial requirements. The country’s automotive sector alone will account for massive increments in petroleum product demand as car ownership democratises across income classes. Aviation fuel requirements will climb as air travel becomes accessible to India‘s burgeoning middle class seeking domestic and international connectivity. Plastics and chemicals manufacturing—essential for packaging, construction, and consumer goods—will consume growing petroleum feedstock volumes supporting industrial expansion.
Natural gas demand is projected to nearly double, reaching 140 billion cubic metres as industries and power generators shift towards cleaner-burning fuels. Coal production will grow domestically by an estimated 50 million tonnes of coal equivalent annually to meet baseload electricity generation needs. This growth trajectory appears paradoxical given global coal demand declining elsewhere, yet reflects India‘s unique development stage and energy security imperatives. The country cannot simply leapfrog fossil fuels whilst simultaneously powering rapid economic growth and lifting hundreds of millions into prosperity. Industrial processes, steel manufacturing, cement production, and thermal power generation remain heavily dependent on coal for affordable, reliable energy. This fossil fuel expansion underscores India‘s position as a nation prioritising development and poverty alleviation alongside environmental considerations.
Accelerating Renewable Energy Transformation
Despite fossil fuel growth, India is simultaneously pursuing aggressive clean energy expansion that challenges conventional development paradigms and expectations. Renewable energy is projected to account for 60% of installed power capacity by 2030 and reach 70% by 2035. Solar and wind installations are experiencing exponential growth, with solar photovoltaic systems attracting $113 billion in investments over the past decade. India achieved 50% non-fossil capacity ahead of its original schedule, demonstrating serious commitment to sustainable energy transitions despite development pressures. The country’s energy mix will diversify substantially, with renewables projected to comprise nearly 20% of total energy consumption by 2050.
Government policies heavily emphasise energy security, cleaner fuel adoption, and emissions reduction whilst targeting net zero emissions by 2070. This dual approach—expanding both fossil and renewable capacity simultaneously—represents a delicate balancing act between competing imperatives of growth and sustainability. India recognises it cannot sacrifice economic development for environmental goals, nor ignore climate responsibilities for short-term gains. The renewable energy push also addresses energy security concerns by reducing import dependency and creating domestic manufacturing capabilities. Solar panel production, wind turbine manufacturing, and battery storage technologies are receiving policy support and investment incentives encouraging indigenous capabilities. This transformation positions India as both a major energy consumer and a significant renewable energy market attracting global investment.
Deepening Import Vulnerability and Security Challenges
India‘s escalating energy consumption will intensify import dependence, particularly for crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. Oil import dependency will climb from 87% currently to 92% by 2035, despite government efforts promoting domestic exploration and production. Imported crude volumes will increase substantially as domestic reserves prove insufficient to meet rapidly growing consumption requirements across sectors. Liquefied natural gas imports are projected to reach 50 billion cubic metres by 2035 as domestic gas production stagnates.
Coal production growth aims to curb import needs but cannot eliminate dependency entirely, especially for specific grades required by industries. Expanding refining capacity across Asia, with India playing a leading role, will process larger crude volumes for domestic consumption and exports. These trends underscore India‘s complex energy security challenges amid volatile geopolitical landscapes and uncertain supply chains globally. Securing steady, affordable energy supplies becomes vital for maintaining economic momentum whilst competing with other nations for finite resources. Strategic petroleum reserves, diversified supplier relationships, and long-term contracts will prove essential for managing supply disruptions and price volatility.
India‘s trajectory towards becoming the dominant force in global energy-demand growth through 2035 carries profound implications for international energy markets. The projected surge spanning fossil fuels and renewables reflects rapid economic expansion and rising living standards across the subcontinent. Despite impressive clean energy advances, deepening import dependence—especially for oil and gas—highlights persistent energy security vulnerabilities. The IEA emphasises India‘s critical role in shaping future energy dynamics and stresses that clean, affordable, reliable energy access remains fundamental to long-term prosperity. How India manages this intricate balance between surging demand, sustainability commitments, and security imperatives will significantly influence global energy trends, climate outcomes, and geopolitical dynamics for decades ahead.